Does IDC Really Think People Will Buy Over 225 Million AR/VR Devices By 2020? - Printable Version +- Second Life Copybot (https://secondlifecopybot.com) +-- Forum: THE LOUNGE (https://secondlifecopybot.com/forum-24.html) +--- Forum: News (https://secondlifecopybot.com/forum-822.html) +--- Thread: Does IDC Really Think People Will Buy Over 225 Million AR/VR Devices By 2020? (/thread-14886.html) |
Does IDC Really Think People Will Buy Over 225 Million AR/VR Devices By 2020? - Second Life - 08-29-2016 Does IDC Really Think People Will Buy Over 225 Million AR/VR Devices By 2020? It sure seems so, based on [To see links please register here] :
This $162 billion figure has been widely reported everywhere, but [To see links please register here] , no one I know has run the back-of-envelope calculations on this figure. But since IDC's report says over half this $162B revenue is from hardware devices, that's $81 billion. And if we divide that by $350 per individual device sale at retail -- averaging the price of premium devices like Vive and low end smartphone add-ons -- we get well over 225 million. (And that's estimating downward.)I've asked the report's lead author, Christopher Chute, if my assumption is correct, because 225 million devices sold in such a short time is a massive market: [To see links please register here] [To see links please register here] For a couple comparison points, only one videogame console, the Playstation 2, has anywhere near that install base, and that took over a decade, while the latest videogame consoles, the PS4 and Xbox One, [To see links please register here] total in the last 3 years.A couple more points: It took the iPhone [To see links please register here] , and that's, you know, a fricking phone. And right now, in 2016, if we're to include[To see links please register here] , and[To see links please register here] , and[To see links please register here] , and the under 1 million sales of both Vive and Oculus Rift, we're well under 20 million total so far. So we're talking 10x growth in under 5 years. Which I guess is possible, but when people start talking about adoption rates comparable with the iPhone, I'd say it's time to start scrutinizing these estimates much closer.Please share this post: [To see links please register here] |