Does IDC Really Think People Will Buy Over 225 Million AR/VR Devices By 2020?

Thread Started By Second Life

1984
0
  • 68 Vote(s) - 2.93 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Rate Thread
#1
Does IDC Really Think People Will Buy Over 225 Million AR/VR Devices By 2020?

IDC VR industry forecast

It sure seems so, based on

[To see links please register here]

:

[W]orldwide revenues for the augmented reality and virtual reality (AR/VR) market will grow from $5.2 billion in 2016 to more than $162 billion in 2020... Sales of AR/VR hardware will generate more than 50% of worldwide revenues throughout the forecast period.

This $162 billion figure has been widely reported everywhere, but

[To see links please register here]

, no one I know has run the back-of-envelope calculations on this figure. But since IDC's report says over half this $162B revenue is from hardware devices, that's $81 billion. And if we divide that by $350 per individual device sale at retail -- averaging the price of premium devices like Vive and low end smartphone add-ons -- we get well over 225 million. (And that's estimating downward.)

I've asked the report's lead author, Christopher Chute, if my assumption is correct, because 225 million devices sold in such a short time is a massive market:

[To see links please register here]

[To see links please register here]

For a couple comparison points, only one videogame console, the Playstation 2, has anywhere near that install base, and that took over a decade, while the latest videogame consoles, the PS4 and Xbox One,

[To see links please register here]

total in the last 3 years.

A couple more points: It took the iPhone

[To see links please register here]

, and that's, you know, a fricking phone. And right now, in 2016, if we're to include

[To see links please register here]

, and

[To see links please register here]

, and

[To see links please register here]

, and the under 1 million sales of both Vive and Oculus Rift, we're well under 20 million total so far. So we're talking 10x growth in under 5 years. Which I guess is possible, but when people start talking about adoption rates comparable with the iPhone, I'd say it's time to start scrutinizing these estimates much closer.

Please share this post:






[To see links please register here]

Reply




Possibly Related Threads…
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  RELAY FOR LIFE OF SECOND LIFE PASSES $3 MILLION DOLLAR MILESTONE Second Life 0 3,336 01-10-2017, 11:30 PM
Last Post: Second Life
  Tabooz: Your place to come relax and have a nice time with wonderful people. Second Life 0 2,029 12-19-2016, 11:37 AM
Last Post: Second Life
  High Fidelity Gets New $22 Million Investment to Grow Virtual Reality Platform Second Life 0 2,320 12-10-2016, 03:52 AM
Last Post: Second Life
  High Fidelity Gets New $22 Million Investment to Grow Virtual Reality Platform Second Life 0 2,518 12-10-2016, 03:52 AM
Last Post: Second Life
  High Fidelity Gets New $22 Million Investment to Grow Virtual Reality Platform Second Life 0 2,078 12-08-2016, 09:30 PM
Last Post: Second Life
  Virtual Mining of Virtual Currency Used to Keep Real People Warm in Siberia Second Life 0 1,932 10-19-2016, 05:25 AM
Last Post: Second Life
  Virtual Mining of Virtual Currency Used to Keep Real People Warm in Siberia Second Life 0 1,748 10-19-2016, 05:25 AM
Last Post: Second Life
  Most People Need the Cut: What Ashton Kutcher Gets About VR Most in the Valley Miss Second Life 0 1,909 10-18-2016, 11:21 PM
Last Post: Second Life
  Virtual Mining of Virtual Currency Used to Keep Real People Warm in Siberia Second Life 0 1,979 10-18-2016, 05:20 PM
Last Post: Second Life
  Second Life "Let's Play" Videos Need More People! Second Life 0 1,978 10-04-2016, 08:15 PM
Last Post: Second Life

Forum Jump:

1 Guest(s)
Share this:

About Second Life Copybot

Second Life CopyBot Forum is a place where you can get items for Second Life and other vitual worlds for free. With our CopyBot viewers you can export and import any content from these virtual worlds and modify them in 3D software such as Blender, 3D studio Macx etc...