Wagner James Au: 2026 will look quite a lot like 2016, just with much much better smartphones. AR will be a large niche category within that smartphone market (100 million), VR a smaller one within it (10s of millions).

Sibley Verbeck Simon: I 100% agree with this. The one caveat is if someone truly hits the nail no the head with a VR gaming device, it could top 100M, but the odds are against it in this timeframe IMO. The reason is lack of killer apps - the bigger behavior change or cultural acceptance change (which has never gone mainstream with even bluetooth ear pieces for phones), the higher utility the application must have in the eyes of someone who hasn't yet tried it. AR and VR both have very high bars as of yet to cross over for mainstream audiences, and haven't yet demonstrated much utility for those audiences, let alone convinced future users of it. Even if that is all solved by 2026, the adoption curve out to the majority of smart phone users will take several years at least.

Justin Bovington: Another perspective: 100k shipped units (Oculus) is not even a niche market; anything between you and the experience is a barrier; we await the killer app (as we did 10 years ago).

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